Risk outlooks
Research we would put in front of a board
Two notes, on the two situations we are asked about most. This is not a news feed and we do not compete on volume — each note carries the date it was written, the confidence attached to it, the sources behind every figure, and what would change our mind.
Signal Note
10 August 2026
Hormuz: the volume shock and the price response are two different events
Transits are down about ninety per cent. Brent is up about sixteen. The gap between those two numbers is where the commercial exposure actually sits — and it is not where most risk registers are looking.
- Insurance
- Freight
- Energy
- Inflation
- Region
- Persian Gulf · global energy and shipping
- Horizon
- 0–6 months
- Confidence
- Moderate
Country Brief
07 August 2026
Taiwan: the air activity is down and the risk is not
PLA sorties have fallen to roughly half of last year's level. Coastguard activity has risen and moved east of the island. Reading the first number without the second is how a register concludes that a risk is easing.
- Component availability
- Freight
- Insurance
- Capex timing
- Region
- Taiwan Strait · North-East Asia
- Horizon
- 6–24 months
- Confidence
- Moderate
A note on currency
Everything here is dated
Both of these situations are moving. A note published today describes what was observable today, and we would rather put the date at the top than imply a currency we are not maintaining.
Client work is different. Under a monitoring engagement, assessments are maintained against agreed triggers, refreshed on a stated cadence and updated by an analyst when a threshold moves — with the reason for every change recorded. That is a service, not a publication. How monitoring works.