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Signal & Range

Geopolitical Risk Advisory

From geopolitical signalsto financial ranges

We find what is changing, model how it reaches your business, and put a defensible number on what it could cost — while management still has options.

Request a briefingSee how the analysis works

Signal to range · worked example

Illustrative — Strait of Hormuz. Indexed landed cost, plan = 100.

  • Tailp 1–4%

    123–148past threshold

  • Severep 6–12%

    110–122past threshold

  • Downsidep 20–30%

    104–109

  • Baselinep 55–65%

    101–103

  • Review threshold at 110. Crossing it moves the assessment to downside assumptions and convenes a review.

  1. Insurance
  2. Freight
  3. Energy
  4. Inflation
  5. Currency
  6. Demand

A security escalation in a maritime chokepoint. On its own, an observation.

Ranges and probabilities. Not predictions.

Where analysis stops

Plenty of geopolitical analysis is competent. Almost none of it is written for someone who has to decide.

The analysis stops at the market. The decision starts at the company. Closing that distance is the whole job, and it is usually left to the client — under time pressure, at the worst possible moment.

It arrives after the decision window has narrowed

By the time a risk is legible in coverage, the useful choices have usually been made or foreclosed.

Country scores cannot rank your countries

A market nobody flags can hold your largest concentration of licences, payment flows or revenue. Without your footprint inside the model, a score prioritises nothing.

Scenarios that never reach a range

“Elevated risk” cannot size a provision, set a hedge or delay an entry. A scenario becomes usable at the point it reaches an interval.

Uncertainty without a trigger or a decision

Being told a situation is uncertain does not tell management what would change its mind, or what it would do about it.

One risk, end to end

A chokepoint disruption, traced to a decision

The same chain runs through every engagement. This is roughly what a client sees in the first fortnight.

Signal

Insurance moves before freight does

Roughly a fifth of seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When the corridor comes under pressure, underwriters reprice cover within days — continuously, and on judgement. Charter rates follow on schedule and on volume. A risk function watching freight is reading the confirmation, weeks after the window to act on it opened.

100140160152FebMarAprMayJunJul

War-risk premium, Gulf transits

Share of hull value, indexed to plan assumption = 100

Above this, downside assumptions apply

Scenario

Four structures, one family

Baseline, downside, severe and tail are variants of the same situation, each with the assumptions that define it and a probability range rather than a single number. Building them together keeps the probabilities coherent and makes the comparison meaningful.

96100110152Review threshold101–103104–109110–122123–148Now12 months
Baseline55–65%Downside20–30%Severe6–12%Tail1–4%Indexed landed cost (plan = 100)
Transmission

The chain from the strait to a purchase decision

Insurance moves first, then freight, then energy, then headline inflation in importing markets, then currency and policy, then the discretionary spend of the customer. Naming each step is what later makes the number arguable instead of asserted.

  1. War-risk insurance

    Hull and cargo premia for Gulf transits; availability of cover by flag and operator.

  2. Freight & routing

    Charter rates, rerouting distance, transit time and schedule reliability.

  3. Energy

    Crude and refined product prices, regional gas, and the cost of everything indexed to them.

  4. Inflation

    Headline and imported inflation in energy- and food-import-dependent markets.

  5. Currency & policy

    Import cover, currency pressure, policy tightening and, at the extreme, capital controls.

  6. Demand & purchasing power

    Discretionary spend, subscription retention, advertiser budgets and price sensitivity.

Vulnerability & exposure

Two assessments, held apart

Vulnerability belongs to the market: import cover, currency regime, fiscal room. Exposure belongs to your business: revenue, cost base, logistics, payment routes. We assess them separately and combine them in the open, because a reader who cannot pull the number apart cannot argue with it.

  • Türkiye

    High energy import dependence, currency highly sensitive to external shocks

    Price pass-through: Full

    Subscription revenue, local pricing, hardware landed cost

  • Egypt

    Thin import cover, subsidised fuel, managed currency regime

    Price pass-through: Administered

    Payment collection reliability, advertiser budgets

  • Pakistan

    Constrained external position, import compression already in use

    Price pass-through: Partial

    Discretionary spend, subscription retention

  • India

    Large absolute import bill, fiscal room to absorb the first round

    Price pass-through: Partial

    Scale of the growth plan, hardware supply chain

The same shock, four different outcomes. India carries the largest absolute exposure and the lowest transmission intensity; Türkiye is the reverse. A single regional assumption would be wrong in both directions.

Range

What it costs, as an interval

Landed cost of goods, freight and energy-linked inputs, indexed against the plan. Each variant produces a band, not a point. A range without a visible assumption register is not defensible, so the two are delivered together.

  • Baselinep 55–65%
    101–103

    Crude +5% to +12% · Freight +10% to +20% · Headline inflation, exposed importers +0.3 to +0.8 pp

  • Downsidep 20–30%
    104–109

    Crude +15% to +30% · Freight +35% to +60% · Headline inflation, exposed importers +0.9 to +1.8 pp

  • Severep 6–12%
    110–122

    Crude +35% to +60% · Freight +80% to +140% · Headline inflation, exposed importers +2.0 to +3.5 pp

  • Tailp 1–4%
    123–148

    Crude +60% to +120% · Freight +150% to +300% · Headline inflation, exposed importers +3.5 to +7.0 pp

Indexed landed cost of goods, freight and energy-linked inputs. Plan = 100.

Trigger & decision

What would change our mind

Each assumption that can move becomes an observable with a threshold set in advance and a decision attached. A crossing convenes a review; it never rewrites the assessment on its own.

The tick sits at the same point on every track — the distance to it is the comparison

  • War-risk premium, Gulf transits

    Above 0.7% of hull value, sustained for two weeks

    Approaching

    On crossing — Move to downside assumptions. Analyst review convened within five working days.

  • Carrier transit suspensions

    Two or more major carriers suspend Gulf transits for more than seven days

    Within tolerance

    On crossing — Escalate to the severe branch. Activate the pre-agreed freight contingency.

  • Regional benchmark crude

    Sustained above +25% versus the plan assumption for ten trading days

    Within tolerance

    On crossing — Re-run the pass-through model. Bring the pricing decision forward.

Pass-through policy
Agree, in advance, how much of a freight and energy surcharge is absorbed and how much is repriced — by market and by channel, before the pressure arrives.
Hedge tenor
Extend cover on energy-linked input costs across the window in which the downside and severe branches remain live.
Launch sequencing
Re-sequence hardware-dependent launches in the four exposed markets rather than absorbing landed-cost volatility at launch.
Provisioning band and review date
Set the provision against the probability-weighted range, with the date and the evidence that would cause it to be revisited.

Illustrative example — constructed to show the method. Every parameter is a stated assumption, and no figure here comes from client work.

How risks connect

Nothing arrives on its own

Two events with nothing in common politically usually end up on the same line of your P&L. Select them and watch where they meet.

Tap an event to open it

  • Travels through

    Marine insurance & routing · Freight rates & lead times · Component availability · FX & payment rails

    Lands on

    Landed cost · Contract & SLA risk · Capex timing · Cash repatriation · In-market revenue

1 event selected, reaching 4 of 6 channels and 5 of 5 exposures.

Illustrative. A structural map of how a class of event reaches a class of exposure — not a monitor, not a forecast, and not a claim that any of it is happening now.

What you receive

Documents, models and the analyst who wrote them

Materiality Matrix

Exposure and materiality position

Vulnerability, exposure and mitigation, held apart

Risks assessed
11
Carried to quantification
5
Documented below the line
6

Exposure & Materiality Matrix

The prioritisation instrument: every assessed risk positioned by plausible severity against your real exposure, with the components shown separately.

Scenario Book

Energy transit disruption

Baseline · Downside · Severe · Tail

Variants
4
Channels modelled
6
Assumptions registered
31

Quantified Scenario Book

The full scenario set for a risk: four variants, their assumptions, their transmission paths and their ranges, in a form that can be argued with.

Executive Risk Report

Geopolitical exposure across the priority footprint

Assessment, quantified scenarios and decision options

Prepared for
Executive Committee
Analytical horizon
24 months
Classification
Confidential

Executive Risk Report

The written assessment of a defined risk position: what is exposed, what could happen, what it plausibly costs and what should be decided.

Illustrative structure — sample content, not client work. The structure is real; the content is constructed.

Every deliverable, in detail

What we are engaged to do

An engagement, start to finish

“The plan was not cancelled. Two entries were re-sequenced, one hedge extended, one intercompany structure changed — and the board approved the rest with a provision, a review date, and five indicators it had agreed to watch.”

That is the shape of the outcome we work towards: a decision taken with its uncertainty on the table.

Weeks, question to board paper
9
Scenario variants modelled
20
Indicators adopted, of 14 proposed
5

Two of the six risks we set aside were high-severity and commercially immaterial to this client. Saying so is part of the work: a register that never excludes anything has not prioritised anything.

Illustrative engagement — fictional company, constructed figures.

Why you can argue with it

Every claim opens

Extract from an assessment

Select any underlined claim

Since the beginning of the month war-risk premia for transits through the corridor have risen materially, and two operators are reported to have paused transits. On the current evidence we assess the probability of partial closure at 6 to 12 per cent over the next two quarters. Under that variant, landed cost would rise by 10 to 22 index points in the severe variant, before mitigation.

Every claim in a delivered assessment carries this record — not as an appendix, but attached to the sentence it supports.

Classification
Reported claim
Source
Two independent trade publications
Evidence grade
C — plausible, not independently confirmed
Analytical confidence
Moderate
Last reviewed
14 July 2026
Ownership
Lead analyst, energy & maritime
Contradiction log
One operator has publicly denied a suspension. Logged rather than resolved; the assessment carries both readings.

Confidence and evidence quality are separate fields. Probability is a third. We never average them into one number, because a reader who cannot pull a score apart cannot challenge it.

Our analytical standards

Bring us one risk

One market, one scenario, one decision you are weighing. We will come back with how we would structure it, which exposures would matter, and what we think can honestly be quantified.

Request a briefing

Confidential introductory conversation. NDA available where appropriate.

You get a scope, not a pitch
How we would structure the work, what we would need from you, and what we would leave alone.
We say what cannot be quantified
Where the available data will not carry a number, we tell you at the scoping stage.
You meet the analyst
Whoever would do the work is in the room from the first conversation, and stays in it. A person answers; there is no scoring and no follow-up sequence.