Insights
Research we would put in front of a board
Dated assessments, not a feed. Each note carries the confidence attached to it, the sources behind every figure, and what would change our mind.
Insurance
10 August 2026
Hormuz: the volume shock and the price response are two different events
Transits are down about ninety per cent. Brent is up about sixteen. The gap between those two numbers is where the commercial exposure actually sits — and it is not where most risk registers are looking.
3 min read
Component availability
07 August 2026
Taiwan: the air activity is down and the risk is not
PLA sorties have fallen to roughly half of last year's level. Coastguard activity has risen and moved east of the island. Reading the first number without the second is how a register concludes that a risk is easing.
3 min read
Everything here is dated. A note published on a given day describes what was observable that day — we would rather put the date at the top than imply a currency we are not maintaining. Under a client engagement, assessments are maintained against agreed triggers and updated by an analyst when a threshold moves.