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Signal & Range

Insights

Research we would put in front of a board

Dated assessments, not a feed. Each note carries the confidence attached to it, the named sources behind every figure, and what would change our mind.

Notes published
02
Most recent
10 August 2026
Third-party sources cited
08
Live coverage claimed
None

What this is

Dated assessments
Every note carries the date its judgements were made and stands as of that date. Nothing on this page is revised quietly.
Named sources
Every figure is reproduced from a named third-party publication, listed in full on the note that uses it.
A stated confidence, and what would move it
Each note ends with the observable conditions that would change the assessment, named in advance.

What it is not

Not a feed
Nothing here updates on its own, and there is no schedule. A note is published when there is something worth putting in front of a board.
Not live coverage
We claim no monitoring of these situations between notes. Under a client engagement, assessments are maintained against agreed triggers.
Not a forecast
Nothing on these pages is modelled or predicted. What is ours is the interpretation, and it is the part that carries a confidence.

The register

  1. Signal Note

    A short assessment of a material new development.

    As of
    10 August 2026
    Horizon
    0–6 months

    Hormuz: the volume shock and the price response are two different events

    Transits are down about ninety per cent. Brent is up about sixteen. The gap between those two numbers is where the commercial exposure actually sits — and it is not where most risk registers are looking.

    What is changing
    A physical disruption at the largest oil chokepoint has produced a collapse in transits, a step change in the cost of cover, and a comparatively modest move in the crude benchmark. The three are not tracking each other.
    Why it matters
    A company that indexes its exposure to the oil price is measuring the smallest of the three moves. Availability of cover, charter availability and delivery reliability have moved by far larger multiples, and they hit different lines of the P&L.

    Confidence: Moderate of three steps — low, moderate, high.

    04 sources

    3 min read

    InsuranceFreightEnergyInflation

  2. Country Brief

    A focused assessment of a single market.

    As of
    07 August 2026
    Horizon
    6–24 months

    Taiwan: the air activity is down and the risk is not

    PLA sorties have fallen to roughly half of last year's level. Coastguard activity has risen and moved east of the island. Reading the first number without the second is how a register concludes that a risk is easing.

    What is changing
    The instrument through which pressure is applied around Taiwan is changing. Military air activity has declined from its 2024–25 peak while maritime law-enforcement activity has increased and, for the first time, extended to waters east of the island with commercial vessels being asked to state origin and destination.
    Why it matters
    The two measures point in opposite directions, and the falling one is the one most trackers report. A company reading a declining sortie count as de-escalation would be reducing attention at the point where the mechanism most likely to touch its cargo — interdiction dressed as law enforcement — is the one being rehearsed.

    Confidence: Moderate of three steps — low, moderate, high.

    04 sources

    3 min read

    Component availabilityFreightInsuranceCapex timing

Confidence is our posture on the judgement. It is recorded separately from the quality of the evidence and the two are never averaged.

On currency

Everything here is dated. A note published on a given day describes what was observable that day — we would rather put the date at the top than imply a currency we are not maintaining. Under a client engagement, assessments are maintained against agreed triggers and updated by an analyst when a threshold moves, with the reason for the change recorded.